🎲 The "Gambler's" Forecast

You open HubSpot.

You see "Weighted Forecast: $5,000,000."

You celebrate.

Then the quarter ends. You close $2,000,000.

Why? Because your Win Probabilities are fiction.

When you set up HubSpot, you left the defaults:

• Appointment Scheduled: 20%
• Qualified to Buy: 40%
• Presentation Scheduled: 60%

These numbers are guesses. They are based on "industry averages" from 2015. They have nothing to do with your sales team, your product, or your market.

If you are using default probabilities, you are gambling, not forecasting.

Here is the audit to finding your Actual Win Rates and updating your pipeline to tell the truth.

🩺 Diagnostic 1: The "Historical" Reality Check

The Symptom: "Qualified to Buy" says 40%, but only 1 in 10 actually closes.

The Audit:

Go to Reports > Sales > Funnel Analysis.

Look at the "Stage Conversion Rate" for the last 12 months.

The Math: If only 10% of deals in "Qualified" eventually move to "Closed Won," then the probability is 10%, not 40%.

The Fix: Update the Pipeline Settings immediately. Be ruthless. Lower the numbers.

🩺 Diagnostic 2: The "Skipped Stage" Inflation

The Symptom: Reps move deals from "New" directly to "Contract Sent." They skip the middle.

The Issue: Your "Weighted" forecast assumes a linear path. If stages are skipped, the data is skewed.

The Fix: Required Fields.

Force reps to enter data at intermediate stages. They can't skip "Discovery" if they have to enter "Budget Amount."

🩺 Diagnostic 3: The "Stalled Deal" Rot

The Symptom: A deal sits in "Presentation Scheduled" (60%) for 6 months. It is counting towards your forecast every single month.

The Issue: Probability should decay over time. A "fresh" 60% deal is likely to close. A "stale" 60% deal is dead.

The Fix: The "Rotting" Workflow.

If Time in Stage > 30 Days -> Set Probability to 0% (or move to "Stalled" stage). Don't let ghosts inflate your numbers.

🩺 Diagnostic 4: The "Rep" Variance

The Symptom: Rep A is accurate. Rep B is overly optimistic.

The Issue: Probability is subjective.

The Fix: Forecast Categories.

Stop relying solely on "Stage Probability."

Use Forecast Categories (Commit, Best Case, Pipeline).

A deal might be in a high stage ("Contract Sent") but marked "Best Case" (Low Confidence) by the manager. Use the Category for the board report, not the Stage.

Math > Feelings.

Forecasting is the heartbeat of the business. If you get it wrong, you hire too many people (or too few).

Stop trusting the "Default Settings." Trust your Historical Data.

Not sure how to run a "Funnel Conversion" analysis?